Get Ready for the Office Pool...

The 78th Annual Academy Awards

OK, yes, so I’ve been slacking with the awards show coverage lately. I blame the movies. As widely reported over the past year, the movie biz is in a decline. Ticket sales are at an all time low and the quality of films is lacking. But back to the awards…

The 78th Academy Award nominations were announced this morning, and there were very few surprises. Brokeback Mountain leads the pack with eight nominations: Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Original Score. Brokeback Mountain is one two films I saw this year that is nominated for Best Picture (I hope to see all five before March 5th). It was good. Good. Not “Oh my God that is the Best Picture of the year!” It deserves its nominations for Best Actor (Heath Ledger, a native Aussie, channels veteran cowboy Tommy Lee Jones like nobody’s business) and Cinematography (the stunning scenery made me want to go herd sheep in the mountains of Wyoming). But Jake Gyllenhaal is miscast as cowboy Jack Twist and his role is definitely that of Leading Actor, not Best Supporting. Michelle Williams is fine as Ledger’s long suffering wife, but she didn’t knock my socks off with her performance. Adapted Screenplay? For the first forty-five minutes the cowboys barely say a word to one another. And that’s another thing: why are they called cowboys when they are sheep herders? Shouldn’t they be called sheepboys? Just asking…

The other Best Picture nominee I saw was Crash. Not only is it better than Brokeback Mountain, but in my opinion it is the best film of the year and should win the Oscar. It’s a moving story about race relations in Los Angeles over a thirty-six hour period. Everyone I know who saw this movie says the same thing: “It will make you think.” And it does. There are approximately seventy roles in this movie (according to Don Cheadle, an executive producer and star of the movie) and each one is as important as the next. But in my opinion, the true standout performance is from Terrence Howard, as a television director caught between two worlds of racism. Unfortunately his performance was not recognized, but he was nominated for Best Actor for Hustle and Flow (a movie I have not yet seen).

I was disappointed to see that Cinderella Man was not recognized as Best Picture or Best Actor. Possibly because it came out last year and people (mainly Academy voters) have forgotten about it. But it was really a great movie and Russell Crowe gave a fantastic performance. So what if he has a temper and throws phones all over the place- the boy can act…

Here are my predictions for the 78th annual Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE:
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck
Capote
Munich

Brokeback Mountain has the best chance, but with the surprise nomination of Crash and its win for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards, it could soon be the frontrunner.

BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck

This is probably the easiest race to call. Philip Seymour Hoffman has won every major award for his performance in Capote. He’s well respected and well liked in the industry and (from what I hear) his performance is top notch. Bet the ranch on Hoffman.

BEST ACTRESS
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

This race is going to be a little tougher, but I think it comes down to Reese Witherspoon and Felicity Huffman. Awards have been split between the two, so its anyone’s call as to who will win. But I'm going to go with Reese Witherspoon. Though she's hardly a veteran, Reese has a proven track record and the Academy loves to honor those who rake in the dough (i.e Julia Roberts for "Erin Brockovich"). And it doesn't hurt she's a cute as a button.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt, A History of Violence

This is the race that is wide open. Like I mentioned earlier, Jake Gyllenhall is in the wrong category and therefore I don’t think he will win. William Hurt hasn’t had much press and is in a movie that many people haven’t seen. Matt Dillion gave a great performance in Crash, and could possibly win if Crash gets overlooked in the other categories it has been nominated in. But the race comes down to George Clooney and Paul Giamatti. Clooney, who won the Golden Globe in this category, is nominated for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay, and therefore his votes could get split. I think Paul Giamatti, (winner of the SAG award) a fantastic, underrated actor, will probably win for his performance as Jim Braddock’s trainer in Cinderella Man. Especially considering that he wasn’t even nominated for his terrific performance in Sideways last year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

This is the race that is usually the most unpredictable. Therefore, any of these women could win. Rachel Weisz has won the Golden Globe and SAG award, so she has a very good chance of winning. But don’t be surprised if Amy Adams takes it for Junebug- her performance was the most talked about thing of this little seen movie.

BEST DIRECTOR
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis, Crash
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller, Capote
Steven Spielberg, Munich

The winner of the Best Director race usually corresponds with Best Picture. But not always. Paul Haggis did a great job of directing a large cast full of terrific performances. Steven Speilberg is always a favorite, but I don’t think the movie’s buzz is strong enough for him to win the award. Bennett Miller, a first time director, should just consider himself lucky to be nominated. George Clooney, the thrice nominated actor/director/screenwriter has a slim shot. The academy loves when actors direct movies successfully (Robert Redford, Mel Gibson, Kevin Costner). But again, the three nominations could work against him and he could walk away with nothing. So my vote is for Ang Lee, who directed a visually beautiful, albeit slow moving movie. If Brokeback Mountain wins Best Picture, Lee will definitely walk away with the Golden Boy.

The 78th Annual Academy Awards are on March 5th, 2006 at 8PM ET/5PM PT